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tv   Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo  CNBC  June 20, 2012 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT

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with the decline of only down 20 points on the dow jones as the fed announces an extension of the bond buying program. the second hour of the "closing bell" starts now. and it is 4:00 on wall street, do you know where your money is? welcome back to the belle bell. i'm maria bartiromo. volatility on wall street as the investors follow the fed today. it sings following the federal reserve statement, because it did not include mention of stimulus measures, but it rep bounds into positive territory by midday today. the stock market cut the losses in half in the last 30 minutes, the market ending up very, very close to break even. with investors see more action in the next couple months? look at how we finished today on
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wall street. a complete comeback from the lows of the day, down 12 points on the lows of the session. nasdaq composites finishes up positive reversing all of the losses of the press conference, and the s&p down around break even, a fractional loss. let's get reaction of our panel. we have david rosenberg, and jeff cox. i want to kick this off with you, how are the markets interpreting the decision today? >> nullly as no news. a lot of the statement and action was widely amendmented. there was no additional liquidity provided to the market so the reaction is muted. >> he had to extend operation twist, if he didn't, it would have been seen as a tightening. >> basically what i said is the market is looking for a new
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paradigm. there was very little in today's statement that provided any hint as to the changes of the fed's position. >> david, you say bernanke doesn't have any support from another round of qe, congress welcome or democrats, how do you get there. >> well, you have seen what republican resons has been to qe already. it's been visceral, and i have not seen many democrats line up behind the fed chairman in support of the kwaun day sieve easing programs. i agree with your earlier people you been interviewing that, you know, in support of the market today was holding out the olive branch, that if economic and financial conditions deteriorate, they stand ready to act more aggressively. there wasn't much in here today except that it was the most down beat assessment that the fed has
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offered. >> they did lower the assessments of the economy quite strategically, but said that job growth slowed down, mentioned sentiment touring more sour. >> that's right. and you would think that they would have done a lot more than just an extension of operation twist. you know, call it operation twist light. it's the minimum that the fed could have done. i think i'll be chartable and say that for those people that believe that bernanke will let the election year and campaign ge get in the way, he said he wouldn't, he would be more aggressive. but if ewe into the fundamentals, the central bank in one fell swoop just cut it's nominal gdp growth forecast for a year which matters for corporate profits. >> jeff, you had a piece talking about what markets wanted ahead of the fed meeting, did that get
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it? >> let's look at what they did want, one of the things is a bizaro economy where bad news is good news. they wanted to hear bernanke be concerned about where we're going because that means more easing. the other thing is they want zero interest all around. it's the only really room that the fed has to go right now because we have negative real yields now. so that's where they're going to be looking for qe 3 from welcome and it's qe candy and they're looking to keep going on the sugar high, so they got the bernanke blues. if you saw what the market did, they market sold off aggressively. so what they got was a little more twist with, just, as david said kind of status quo. not a whole lot. so what i think is to put a big ribbon on this, the big thing will be see you at jackson hall
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in late ougaugust. they not do anything after that baulz of how the election is going. >> they probably did want to buy time here because they don't want to do anything too dramatic as they watch these issues drawing out. but there are three more fed meetings before the election. you have july, september, october. does the language from today's statement leave the door open, is that why the market came back? >> it left the door open, enthe fed certainly has other securities they could attempt to buy such as mortgages, going further up the risk spectrum welcome and to further provide stimulus. the problem is you're pushing on a string. you're providing liquidity to the market, but the market is not using it to generate specific capital spending, and there's only so much liquidity can accomplish on it's own, and
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there's a debate of what you can do next. >> this is bernanke's worse nightmare. they have an operation twist that didn't do a whole lot, and you're in a deflationary environment. >> so what would you expect then, rest of the year? >> i expect qe 3, i absolutely think they will come with another round of easing. he has been betting on controlling inflation. i don't think he even had it in his wildest imagination this economy would be as show as it is right now. >> it's interesting that he did take a stance on this fiscal cliff, will you see anything done on that? we will see an agreement by congress? >> i'm not as optimistic as you are, giveen the wide divide, but
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maybe cooler heads will prevail. i don't know that we'll get anything done by the end of the year. perhaps a lame duck congress after the election will get something done. sometimes they have got stuff through with the president, but that's post-november. what was most important to my mind today is there is not one fed official that leaves that the unemployment rate is going to be below 6.3%. and that's the level we got to the in september of '08. >> how do you get there in such a short period of time. >> 9/11 their hopeful forecast, you don't get to the level that we were at when we were ten months into the worse recession since the 1930's. that tells you something. qe 3, we could be talking about
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qe 4 or 5 bases on this forecast alone. >> i find that extraordinary, i have to agree with you to go to the 6% range from where we are right now in a few months. thank you for following this, let's get more on the market swings following the latest action today. over to the floor right now. >> at lot of drama and not a lot came out of it, look at the dow jones industrial average. you know where you ended up? exactly where we started before the federal reserve started. look at the other markets, look at financials, either side of positive or negative before the fed starts talking, and either side after the meeting. they said they stood ready to take action if unemployment deteriorated. that set up the possibility of
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qe 3 overall. one sector i did see movement, utilities, borning, they're the market leadership this quarter. everybody is hiding out in them, their deterioration was interesting today. no recovery at all. finally, rejoice, brent crude, 18 month low, and airlines up. >> good moves there on the airlines, bob. take a short break, we're just getting started here on the "closing bell." >> with interest rates near historic lows, are you better off hunting for yield or just protecting the money you have left. plus, wall street is trying to cash in on the red hot home rental market. find out why something here says it's not only a bad idea, but reminiscent of what got us into the mess
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>> welcome back, no surprise the federal reserve is propping up the economy. he says preserving capital is a dead game, it's time for
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investors to buy. and our other guest is all about cash, his company went 100% before the announcement here in. >> in the short-term nobody is getting paid so we're fine with that. we look at seth and his quarterly letter, and if it's all based on what the fed will do next, that's very speculative, and today being in cash was probably the right call. equities were down, oil was down, and bonds were small. we're willing to take it back and reassess going forward. >> what about that, michael? isn't it at the end of the day making sure you don't lose any more money and preserving capital here giveen the uncertainties. >> if you're in cash, you're making 0. sect, inflation is at 3%, so you're guaranteeing a negative
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3% yield. investors need to understand that the yield rate has changed. you have to take credit risk, look international at fixed income, and you need to look at dividend paying tostocks. look at companies that are not going away. they pay from 3% to 6% yield. as a long sterm strategy, unless you're timing this game, that's just not going to pay. >> so how do you find yield in this market with rates where they are? >> first of all, you start getting out of cash, you protect against federal interest rate by being fairly short. you lower your credit quality so you have an average credit quality asset pool, perhaps you buy, again, dividend pay and stocks, stock that's you cannot
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look at the balance. it's hard not to look at statements, but look at the yield you're getting and move outside of the united states for international treasury and assets. not places like greece and spain, and look at noninvestment grade assets. if you can live with a little fluctuation, isn't that better than guaranteeing a negative 3% yield? what about that daryl? >> i think move to cash is tactical. it's a short to intermediate term move. what e wanted to avoid today was what happened to the markets. we didn't lose in equities or commodities, we preserve capital. we're willing to annualize being in cash all year, this is a tactical move. the right time and place and we'll get back into certain asset classes. in terms of going internationally looking for
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yield that's a very dangerous game. especially in europe. we know what is happening is with yields going higher. to get to chase yield we would not advice that at all. >> maria, here is the thing. if you start going to a strategy where you said i'm getting out of the market and get tactical to cash, you have to be right twice, right? so i guess it's a matter are you a trader or an investor? i bet most people watching today are longer term or intermediate term investors and trying to get in and out of this thing is a dangerous thing. >> what if daryle may believe you can get in at lower levels? >> i think that's exactly right, you have to be tactical. from our perspective, it's all about time and price. one example as we traded the u.s. dollar 32 times out of the
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last 32 years. you have to be tactical, any long term investor in the last ten years lost money, that's a fact. so to buy things and hope is not a strategy. >> you don't want to buy things and hope, you want to -- >> think about what we're looking at, if you look at the federal reserve, it's going to be influencing interest rate policy. it's going to be influencing the economy. if you're out out of market because of that, you're going to be out of the market for months if not years. i wrote a blog about this on cnbc.com. that's not going to change. we want to change fundamentals, the reality is if the environment suggest policy maker wills manipulate good or bad, the market in the economy, you have to be there. i agree you want to be tactical, i'm just very hesitant to the go all cash for a guaranteed loss.
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>> is that what happened today michael? >> they come all the way back, final hour, ending really flat on the day. >> this is a perfect example of how do you invest on a sentiment game. the markets essentially went down why, because we didn't have more than operation twist, but the market started to go up when you got the statement where people are using adjectives to suggest being aggressive in the future. the fed is on a trajectory to dump massive loads of money into the system. the same thing will happen in europe, and we know the same thing is happening in china, you have to be, in my view, tactical and invest based on fed tail winds. >> how long will you stay in cash there, karyl? you're losing money, right? >> being in cash was the best place to be today, so we did net, that was a good call for
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our clients, but today was a catalyst, we knew the fed had an announcement, we wanted to get out of the way, savvy investors don't want to invest baited on government intervention. so reign it back in and find the compelling asset classes. >> thank you, great to talk with you, we appreciate your time. one of the world's biggest million nationals are worried about the economy. the implications of proctor and gamble cut to the growth forecast in months. later, is it the makings of a another financial disaster. we will size up the risk factors.
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we have a market flash right now, let's get to the market flash. >> maria, we're watching red shot shares trading lower at this hour. nongap basis 30 cents earnings per share on expected revenues. we take a look at the chart and shares are getting hit hard at this hour. traders say they look to be decelerating here and deferred revenues came in a little light
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as well. there will be a conference call starting at 5:00 that will offer more color then. breaking news out of washington right now, over to juan harwood. >> they just voted to site attorney general eric holder for con cement in the case of fast and furs. they have been demanding documents. this takes the political war between republicans and democrats this year to a new level. it now goes to the floor of the full house that will decide whether or not to affirm that citation that will then throw this into the courts. it's a question if the republican leaders want to go down this root because it takes them off message about the economy and president obama's responsibility for the weak economy, but daryl isa voted on this, and we'll see where it leads when we get to the courts. >> what does this mean for eric
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holders job? >> he enjoys the confidence of president obama who this morning invoked executive privilege to try to fore stall a contempt citation welcome and the question is whether or not the administration loses in the courts, and at that point, eric holder would have a new level of problem. >> all right, we will watch that story, thank you so much. john harwood with the latest there, contempt for eric holder, we will watch that develop. the larger they are, the more worried they are. proctor and gamble cut confidence today. mcdonalds earlier this month raiding a red flag. and ed says there are storm clouds brewing. >> there's no question about it, none of this news should be surprising to anybody. we all know the world economy is
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slowing and that will hurt corporate earnings because the majority of the companies drive most of their growth outside of our border. when you're looking for growth companies, even if they're value companies, they're driving outside of our borders. don't be surprised if you keep hearing this headline, it will be a different company every day. >> is it because the emerging markets are slowing at a time when unemployment is worsening here in the u.s.? >> it's everything, you have china slowing, india is in stagnation. all of the other engines in the world are slowing. the economies are what come out of the emerging markets so when you see china, india, north america, europe, you will see the markets slow as a result of the world economy. >> let me ask you about, anybody you talk to about this will say so what? we're still sees china at 7%. so what, we're still seeing brazil at 58%. so that's what i say to you, i
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mean you're still talking about much stronger rates outside of the u.s. than inside the u.s. >> you're seeing that, but when you have something that is split in half, and china basically they're growth is 50% lower than we thought, india slowing even more, our companies moved up in anticipation of ghood products being -- you know the products being sold in those countries. when that slows down that hurts our moved up expectations. that's why it's so what because when you hear that news that affects the 401 k plans and investment that everyone is watching right now. so it isn't just so what, it's listen and unde undnd how it impacts you because it does. >> understand, thank you, ed. we'll watch that string of companies and if it continues. before we go, earlier we asked if the fed should prop up the economy or let it stand on it's own, these are sop of the response responses, is the fed the american public's parents?
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and gavin says they should revisit economics 101. let free market economics work. and andrew says the cure can be worse than the disease. more qe can have dangerous and potentially dangerous consequences. is it another brilliant idea that torsed the economy? we have a new way to get people to invest in housing. later, if you had to give up one, would it be a toothbrush or an iphone. two out of five say they would rather give up their toothbrushes for a week. we'll talk about smart phone addictions next, stay with us.
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welcome back, after hours action, let's check in with bertha coons. >> bed bath and beyond topped earnings estimates, but they
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were looking for 2.25 billion. and the big problem is earnings for next quarter, it's looking at earnings at 97 cents and they were looking for $1.08. don't look now. but a knew way to bet on the housing market. >> that's right, this builds on the incredible demand we're seeing in the rental market. investors have been buying up properties and banks have so many on their books they're renting some. their called reos, so how do you turn that into a higher yield asset? investors are looking to turn it into a security. it would be rental streams lather than mortgage payments. so if you own a bunch of foreclosed homes you're not
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renting out, you pool the rental income of these homes into a tradeable security. you sell that to investors. if the homes themselves are eventually sold, the investor could get a cut of that as well. folks at standard and poors say they have been approached about rating this potential new class. >> whether the investors get paid back because everybody pays those rents and higher rents, that's good for investors, and if you get paid back because they were able to sell the properties that's also good for investors. >> but investors have to look at rental cash flows, property values, and property management, because that can get difficult in different areas. we spoke with several groups expressing interest they include black rock. they say they want to see transparency. they want to know exactly what they're buying, how it's performing, and what future performance expectations might be. we have plenty more details on
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this on the blog, realitycheck .cnbc.com. and wall street is bringing back the complicated instruments of the real estate market. we asked folks on the street. >> mdf? what is mbs? >> wrong person is ask. >> mortgage backed securities. >> i couldn't tell you exactly what it is, but i can tell you the banks were very eager to give home buyers more money than they needed. >> i don't know. >> we don't know. >> sorry, i'm not understanding. >> oh man, don't ask me that, i have no idea. maybe that's not all together fair, but it does seem like alphabet soup out there for the average joe. are they putting the housing market in risk again? one of our guests says it's
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horrible, the other says it could be okay. >> it's a horrible idea, the reos should be doa. it reminds us of the saying it's deja vu all over again. this is simply a way to off set risk, and put it on the shoulders of retail clients and that's wrong. we have seen this movie before and it has not ended well. >> and is it a vehicle for an income stream? talk to us a about the positives you would see? why would these be be good? >> we have a huge backlog. and this is one way of getting additional funding for it. it will not be right for every investor by any means, but i think with appropriate incentives and skin in the game, it's possible this could be an additional way of helping clear out the backlog, and that's good
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for the country as a whole and the economy. >> what about that? is there an argument to be made we're in this housing mess, and this might be one way to clear out some of the invenn torsion? >> it's absolutely a way to clear out inventory, but the question becomes at what cost? we have millions of investors whose have been put on hold because they lost money, and other similar investments, and now it seems like we're doing the same exact thing, just because you can take something, securetize it, sell it and off load it, that doesn't make it a good idea, that's the problem i have with it. >> iek michael, there has to be some risks involved here. >> that's right, we need to make sure the sec is involved in make thing sure there is clear transparency and oversight. we want to make sure the kinds of investors that take this on or not are regular retail
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investors. it's a sophisticated product not for all investors, and this is really getting off the ground. people should be cautious, and i don't think this is the kind of thing we should see wide parts of the country take up as the next best new thing to do. it's an important way to get financing into the market, it's a useful tool, we'll get more investors involved, but this is not going to be the next big thing that we want people on the street to talk up as being their great new investment. >> how is this different? michael? in terms of this being different than the bundles that we saw in the really, the euphoria days that ended up crashing. >> i think we had a horrible situation, and they were done on sub prime mortgages without transparency, a lined incentives, really horrible loans being made, and they were
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blessing things without taking a careful look. i think people have to be cautious and careful as we restart markets including in residential mortgages to make sure the strong tough new rules are applied, skin in the game, capital requirements, transparen transparency, honesty, in the process. >> what about that? cautious and careful, but what are we supposed to do? not have anything with the least bit of complication to it? >> no, that's not the answer, but it's not asking the fox to guard the hen house again, and that's what we're doing. we're asking the scc to do their job. we're asking the rating agencies -- >> they don't understand it, the rating agencies have an inherent conflict of interest because they're getting paid. we know they're not going to do that, so if you want the same exact recipe, the same formula
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that got us into this mess in '08 that we're trying to dig out now -- >> can you say flat out that nobody puts clients first? is that aggressive. >> we have wall street banks and broker firms almost melts down the economy for an $800 billion taxpayer bailout. so i don't think their track record is good for putting client's interests firsts. >> thoughts on the interest comment there? >> we agree on the basic causes of the financial crisis, financial institutions took on excessive risk, there were conflicts of interest with their clients, retail investors got sold things they didn't understand. that's all the case. the question is today, with the reform rules in place when the dodd frank rule passed, how do we restart the private market,
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how do we get finance flowing again, do we want to live in a country with no secure t -- >> why don't we take madoff and off load on to the shoulders of retail investors, because you can do it, don't mean you should do. >> okay, we'll leave it there, appreciate your time tonight. so how is this evidence for owning mobile telecon stocks say they would rather give up their toothbrushes than their iphones. gloss but telling. gearing you up tomorrow we have wall street's stop strategist to show you what will move your money first thing in the morning. back in a moment.
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welcome back, americans are becoming so addicted to technology, that when they travel, many will sacrifice almost anything, including high gene to keep their devices powered. some are going to extreme measures like unplugging other people's gadgets, or sitting in a bathroom to keep their
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technology charged. this soundist like good news for wireless stocks our next guests conducted the survey. thank you for joining us. i'm going to get to when you're talking for a trip, first let's get to the survey and what you learned from it. >> yeah, people would rather have laptops and notebooks and cell phones than a toothbrush. it includes e-mail, texting, twitter, and facebook and people cannot give these things up. they have an emotional attachments and it takes priority. >> i have been undergoing a major technology break down in the last month. it has impacted everything. i have been tweeting less, they forgot to put twitter on my new way. i went from iphone to
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blackberry. so when you pack for a trip, you say you can forget about everything else as long as you have your phone? >> that's right, you can forget everything except for the phone. you can have the hotel bring you stuff, pick up a suit, but you have to have your phone. >> tell me about extreme measures that people take to keep their devices powered. >> travelers admit to flirting with people to try to get them to give up a power outlet or picking a restaurant or cafe based on where the power outlets are. >> it's also the fact there are 5 billion cell phones on the planet, and a billion of those are smart phones, there's an enormous potential for growth. >> absolutely, what we find is there is a craving to be able to
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do smr with devices. that's where we see ultra books and lab tops doing things like content creation while they're traveling, being able to upload photos, and 75% of respondents enjoy having their devices with them because they feel more connected to their friends. >> this is the second annie maria generation. only 30 to 35% of the global mark will go to 70%, and then to 100%. >> especially as you have population growth happening over the u.s. >> yes, enthe big change is smart phones are now available in emerging markets. you didn't have that a year ago. android has enabled this, and low cost chip sets enabled growth in these emerging markets. >> that's a great point. >> brian you say the findings
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are good for smart phone makers, but not for everybody -- >> if you don't compete, you will fall to the bottom of the pack. we saw that with research in motion and nokia, it's continuing to hurt. if you're at the top of the pack like apple and samsung, it's ahead of you. >> it affects the carriers as well, the more you're connected, the more you need to tweet, the more you're using data on the networks, that goes into the pocket of the carriers. >> what are you looking for now? what do you look for in terms of new trends on the horizon in the next ten years. >> i think what whooer seeing is a contrast between the way people used to travel, to disconnect from their daily lives. finding more and more people feel empowered with their
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devices, stay seconded, and in realtime share their experiences with family and friends. >> so the social networking part of it is among the beneficiaries here. >> yes, all of the information services available are really empowering people to want to say connected more and as a result of that you see anxiety associated with not being always connected. so the younger generations being less willing to shut off their devices when they're on an airplane, sometimes they have to be told multiple times. >> i think they're unwilling to be connected, but the next trend is the nfc where phones will become payment mechanisms, it's just starting to emerge now, but we're going to see more of that. >> they're doing that? asia already. >> yes. all right, geman, great conversation, appreciate it. thank you. so first thing tomorrow morning, wall street jocks show us their
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>> tomorrow >> tomorrow it's all about the
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economy. existing home sales. federal reserve data. what's on the radar? that's a few of them with 30 seconds on the clock. my next guest tells people where they think those things will move the market. >> while we're going see a slight drop or we expect to see a slight drop, the overall trend is higher than it was in may. we saw the market drop 1.75%. and most importantly is that the fed issued the statement that they are now looking at the sustained market improvements for their actions. >> you're up. 30 seconds on the clock. >> at brookstone, we're not speculative junkies.
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all eyes are going to be on the data tomorrow. it's chock full of jobless claims to pmi to the economic indicators. >> times up. thank you. >> i agree with the others that the economic data is going to be key tomorrow. the trend lately is that the day is disappointed and could cast a sour mood over the open. also watching the supreme court thursday's historically been a key date in important rulings. perhaps we'll get the key health care rating.
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>> all right. thanks for keeping up. >> tonight brian sullivan is hosting "getting back to business". he joins us now with a preview. >> a lot of people out there watching probably want to be their own boss. a lot of times it's hard 500 people in the audience. put together a big town haul. you might have heard of spanx. the youngest self-made female billionaire in america. look at this. >> you started your company shortly after 9/11. businesses were in lock down, banks were in lock down. credit was scarce. how many people said start a company now?
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observation on the fed action or inaction. seems to me the fed is just buying time on the horizon. both of those events could seriously hurt the economy and the markets and ben bernanke needs some ammunition. so this probably was the best course they cough taken even if it is debatable. it will actually help the slowing economy. the fed's new forecast is less than rosy. more on that in a moment. some are saying that the fed in some way adopted an easing bias today because of the change in language. there was language indicating it will regularly review its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as needed. the fed is prepared to take further action. this does not expand the fed's balance sheet. it continues to put a timetable on longer term bonds. the statement downgraded the fed's view on bonds, acknowledging that the softer payroll data has happened and
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stated that growth in employment has slowed down. household spending appears to be rising at a slower pace than earlier in the year. and it tweaked its expectations. and the unemployment rate will decline only slowly. people look at the differences very closely. so are investors and the rest of us. as the market expected it would. the dow jones industrial average is down about 13 points, having fallen for the fourth time in 12 sessions but it was down about 85 points at its worst. approximate r the worst certai

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